Monday, September 10, 2012

History vs. Polls

Political scientists at University of Colorado Boulder have released their predictions of the election outcome--and it doesn't look good for Obama. Since 1980, this analysis has correctly predicted the outcome of every election. So, despite what the polls say this week (and probably for the next month), keep this article in mind.

According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties...

In 2012, “What is striking about our state-level economic indicator forecast is the expectation that Obama will lose almost all of the states currently considered as swing states, including North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida,” Bickers said.

Read the full text from the CU-Boulder press release

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